Medicare

Over the past couple of months I've compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in ACA plans (Qualified Health Plans & Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/CHIP coverage (both traditional & via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services & Advantage) at the Congressional District levels.

With the pending dire threat to several of these programs (primarily Medicaid & the ACA) from the House Republican Budget Proposal which recently passed, I'm going a step further and am generating pie charts which visualize just how much of every Congressional District's total population is at risk of losing healthcare coverage.

USE THE DROP-DOWN MENU ABOVE TO FIND YOUR STATE & DISTRICT.

Over the past couple of months I've compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in ACA plans (Qualified Health Plans & Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/CHIP coverage (both traditional & via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services & Advantage) at the Congressional District levels.

With the pending dire threat to several of these programs (primarily Medicaid & the ACA) from the House Republican Budget Proposal which recently passed, I'm going a step further and am generating pie charts which visualize just how much of every Congressional District's total population is at risk of losing healthcare coverage.

USE THE DROP-DOWN MENU ABOVE TO FIND YOUR STATE & DISTRICT.

Over the past couple of months I've compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in ACA plans (Qualified Health Plans & Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/CHIP coverage (both traditional & via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services & Advantage) at the Congressional District levels.

With the pending dire threat to several of these programs (primarily Medicaid & the ACA) from the House Republican Budget Proposal which recently passed, I'm going a step further and am generating pie charts which visualize just how much of every Congressional District's total population is at risk of losing healthcare coverage.

USE THE DROP-DOWN MENU ABOVE TO FIND YOUR STATE & DISTRICT.

NOTE: This is a work in progress. Check back soon as I'm adding more states every day.

Over the past couple of months I've compiled a master spreadsheet breaking out enrollment in ACA plans (Qualified Health Plans & Basic Health Plans), Medicaid/CHIP coverage (both traditional & via ACA expansion) and Medicare (both Fee-for-Services & Advantage) at the Congressional District levels.

As noted in the methodology for each, there's a small amount of fuzziness in some of the numbers for a couple of reasons, the main one being that the "as of" date varies depending on the type of coverage--Medicaid/CHIP total numbers are as of last October, while ACA Expansion Medicaid is as of last June; Medicare data is as of September 2024; and ACA exchange QHPs/BHPs are as of January 2025.

On January 19th, the day before the Musk/Trump Regime took office, I posted the following:

DON'T GET ME WRONG: I'm not saying that everything posted by HHS or CMS under the Trump 2.0 Administration will be bullshit. My guess is the vast majority of it will probably be reasonably accurate, at least for the first few months...if only because it will take awhile for whatever sycophants/grifters he puts in charge of those departments (likely antivaxxer nutjob RFK Jr. for HHS and grifter/snake oil salesman Dr. Oz for CMS) to purge their departments of career professionals and replace them with MAGA/Trump loyalists.

Even then, it's quite possible that some or even most reports will remain reasonably accurate, in some cases simply because Trump doesn't see any reason to cook those particular books; in other cases they may simply not be aware that some data is even being made publicly available.

via Liz Essley Whyte and Betsy McKay of the Wall Street Journal:

The White House is working on an executive order to fire thousands of U.S. Department of Health and Human Services workers, according to people familiar with the matter.

Under the order, the Food and Drug Administration, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other health agencies would have to cut a certain percentage of employees. 

...The agencies are responsible for a range of functions, from approving new drugs to tracing bird-flu outbreaks and researching cancer. A loss of staff could affect the efforts depending on which workers are cut and whether they are concentrated in particular areas.

...Agency officials have been told to prepare lists of probationary workers who have essential roles and must be retained, and of employees who don’t, according to people familiar with the instructions.

Federal employees must decide today whether to take the administration’s buyout offer. More than 40,000 federal workers to date have said they would resign under the deal. 

(Yes, I'm aware Elon Musk is a naturalized citizen, but given the Musk/Trump Administration's obsession with demonizing immigrants it seems like an appropriate headline)

via the Wall Street Journal:

Representatives of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency have been working at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, where they have gotten access to key payment and contracting systems, according to people familiar with the matter.

The DOGE representatives have been on site at the agency’s offices this week, the people said, and they are looking at the systems’ technology as well as the spending that flows through them, with a focus on pinpointing what they consider fraud or waste. DOGE representatives are also examining the agency’s organizational design and how it is staffed, the people added.

I recently published an ambitious spreadsheet which attempted to compile a comprehensive & up to date tally of total ACA healthcare coverage (including both exchange-based Qualified Health Plans (QHPs), Basic Health Plans (BHPs) and ACA Medicaid expansion enrollment), broken out by not just state but by Congressional District.

Doing this on a state-by-state level is easy. Doing so by Congressional District (CD) gets a lot trickier.

As I noted in my prior article, for state level ACA enrollment I'm using official data reports from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) for the "baseline" numbers, supplemented by more recent state-level data from some of the state-based ACA exchanges & state Health & Human Services departments.

There's only a single CD in Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming, as well as one non-voting House member in the District of Columbia, so no further work is needed for those. For the other 43 states, however, breaking the enrollment data out by CD gets trickier.

via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):

October 2024 Key Findings

Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment

  • In October 2024, 79.3 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP.
    • 72.1 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid, and 7.2 million individuals were enrolled in CHIP.
    • 41.7 million adults were enrolled in Medicaid, and there were 37.6 million Medicaid child and CHIP enrollees.

Medicaid and CHIP Applications Received

  • In October 2024, Medicaid, CHIP, Human Services agencies, and State-based Marketplaces received 2.6 million applications, or 2 percent more applications, as compared to September 2024.
  • The number of applications received has increased by 20 percent since October 2023 and increased by 66 percent since October 2022.

Total Medicaid/CHIP enrollment in October 2024 still dropped very slightly from September...by just 55,000 people.

In August 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (passed with into law with purely Democratic votes).

While the IRA included a long list of landmark provisions, in addition to the critical upgraded ACA premium subsidies which are unfortunately set to expire at the end of 2025, other healthcare-related ones include:

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