Just another update: I'm fairly certain that QHP selections via HealthCare.Gov (covering 39 states) has broken 1.7 million people, with an additional 500,000 having enrolled via the 12 state-based exchanges for a total of around 2.2 million as of tonight.
The confirmed tally stands at just over 1.4 million thanks to a small update out of Minnesota.
I expect things to slow down significantly over the holiday weekend (Thursday - Sunday) before ramping back up again next week.
UPDATE: As of Wednesday night (11/23/16), I estimate the grand total is now up to around 2.4 million nationally, 1.8 million via HC.gov.
Minnesota continues to enroll people at a breakneck pace (fortunately, broken necks are covered by Obamacare). Things have slowed down somewhat from the first few days, but they're still signing people up at a rate 3.5x faster than they did last year's 404/day due mainly to their unique "enrollment cap" situation:
28,000 Minnesotans Enrolled in Individual Plans Through MNsure Since the Start of Open Enrollment November 21, 2016
ST. PAUL, Minn.—Below is an update to MNsure's 2017 open enrollment period. Within the first three weeks of open enrollment, more than 28,000 Minnesotans have enrolled in health coverage.
Since the start of open enrollment, there have been:
I'm taking a break from the national panic over Trump's election to announce two subtle but important modifications to The Graph:
First: In yesterday's release of CMS's Weekly Snapshot Report from HealthCare.Gov for the first "2 weeks" of open enrollment, they explained that instead of running the weeks from Tuesday - Monday, they're going to measure them by the traditional calendar week (Sunday - Saturday). This means that the first two "weeks" are being cut off by 2 days (Nov. 1st - 12th instead of the 14th).
Since all of the official reports going forward will be measured Sunday - Saturday, I've changed the graph to match. I've also modified my official Weekly Projections accordingly. It's important to clarify that the actual projections haven't changed at all, just the cut-off date (for instance, I originally projected 1.53 million people in the first 2 weeks (14 days); instead I now have it as 1.29 million in the first "2 weeks" (12 days). The actual projection itself hasn't changed at all.
Yesterday, the Access Health CT board meeting presentation gave the 2017 QHP selection tally as (I think) 9,455 renewals plus 6,630 new additions for a total of 16,085 people, though it's a little confusingly presented.
They don't really break out the "renewal" number, so I'm not certain what the total is, but assuming the 9,455 figure is accurate, that brings it up to 16,498, or 970/day.
For comparison, last year they only averaged around 575/day (for the first 7 days anyway), so it's definitely busier (2.3x faster) so far.
Even just looking at new enrollees: The first week averaged 183/day last year; this year it was 368/day the first 8 days and 425/day the first 17 days...again, more than twice last year's rate so far.
Individuals have selected health care plans as of November 15, 2016. This enrollment reflects a period in which Covered California did not conduct media or enrollment promotion until after November 12th .
Compares to approximately 50,700 for same period 2015 (when Covered California had conducted extensive media and “bus tour” efforts to promote enrollment).
OK, so new enrollments are down about 11% from last year, but as they note, they deliberately held off on actively promoting/advertising until after the election this year.
If I'm reading this correctly, it looks like they currently have 85,250 people enrolled in effectuated exchange policies. 9,455 have actively renewed/re-enrolled into either their existing policy or a different one, plus another 5,570 brand-new enrollees who have signed up, for a total of 15,025 QHP selections for 2017.
What's confusing me is that they also say that "100,275 are currently enrolled"...which you only get by adding all 3 of those numbers together, which makes little sense to me.
With 23,883 people signing up via MNsure for private coverage as of Nov. 13, the exchange is more than one-fourth of the way to its budget target of 83,000 enrollees at the beginning of next year.
That's 1,837 per day, vs. last year's 404 per day; while things are starting to slow down, they're still enrolling people at a rate 4.5x as fast for the moment. Again, this is mainly due to MNsure's unique first-come, first-serve enrollment cap on most of their carriers.
Burwell's Tweet doesn't give the cumulative total to date, but her "best day yet" clarifier certainly helps. My pre-election model was projecting the following:
11/01: 68K
11/02: 92K (160K total)
11/03: 92K (252K total)
11/04: 92K (344K total)
11/05: 75K (419K total)
11/06: 51K (470K total)
11/07: 92K (562K total)
11/08: 92K (654K total)
11/09: 85K (739K total)
I then went on to note that the actual tally for 11/09 specifically (the day after the election) turned out to be "over 100,000"...later clarified as 105,000 people, which is 24% higher than my own one-day projection.
My projections for the next few days were around 85,000 per day, for a cumulative total of 993,300 QHP selections via HealthCare.Gov as of November 12th.
Today CMS issued their first bi-weekly "snapshot" report. Lo and behold:
Biweekly Enrollment Snapshot • WEEKS 1 AND 2, NOV 1 - 12, 2016
But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty’s figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. A great deal of the time you were expected to make them up out of your head.
