OE4

Access Health CT, the Connecticut ACA exchange, just announced their final OE4 enrollment numbers; they're down about 3.9% year over year:

LT. GOVERNOR WYMAN, ACCESS HEALTH CT ANNOUNCE 2017 OPEN ENROLLMENT NUMBERS
111,524 Residents Enrolled Through Access Health CT; 13,791 are New to the Exchange

(HARTFORD, Conn.) – Lieutenant Governor Nancy Wyman, Chair of the Board of Access Health CT (AHCT), and AHCT CEO Jim Wadleigh today announced that the state’s health insurance exchange enrolled 111,524 residents during the 2017 Open Enrollment Period, which ended at midnight on January 31, 2017.  Of those enrollees, 13,791 consumers are brand new to the exchange. In addition, 5,000 people came through AHCT seeking dental coverage and 1,467 enrolled in health coverage through the Small Business Program.

OK, I'm a bit confused by Covered California's press release just now:

Covered California Finishes Fourth Open Enrollment With More Than 412,000 New Consumers and Strong Participation From Young Enrollees

  • New plan selections met enrollment projections for the fourth open-enrollment period.
  • Nearly 50,000 consumers signed up for health care coverage in the final two days before the Jan. 31 deadline.
  • Strong finish and overall enrollment are credited to effective work by Certified Insurance Agents and enrollers and robust television, digital, print and outdoor advertising that ran throughout the open-enrollment period.
  • The crucial demographic of young adults ages 18–34 accounted for 37 percent of enrollment, contributing to a healthy risk mix for 2017.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Covered California announced Monday that it finished the open-enrollment period with 412,105 new consumers signing up for health coverage.

The official enrollment report won't actually be released until a little later, but Connect for Health Colorado just posted the following: (it's dated 2/03 but just went live on their site today):

CEO Blog: End of Open Enrollment Update

Posted on Friday, February 3, 2017

Today marks the end of our fourth and by far most successful Open Enrollment period. The number of plan selections ran 12% ahead of last year’s pace and the volume of last-minute customers Monday and Tuesday led us to extend sign-ups for three days for those who started the process before Tuesday’s deadline.

I share this information with extreme gratitude to our dedicated staff, our Assistance Network, our Broker partners, our health insurance company partners and the many other supportive stakeholders who helped us move forward with our shared mission no matter the headwinds we encountered along the way.

There's no specific number listed, but last year's official Open Enrollment Period QHP selection total for Colorado was 150,759 people.

UPDATE 2/07/17: Over at Balloon Juice, David Anderson (aka 'Richard Mayhew') tackled the "last-minute sabotage" issue from a completely different angle, using actual statistical analysis methodology (remember, I'm not a statistician regardless of what everyone thinks)...and came to the exact same conclusion I did:

2017 using my known flawed data was running .96% behind 2016 on the January 14th inclusive update.  2017 ended up running 5.25% behind 2016 on Healthcare.gov states.  The increment (using favorable to the null hypothesis data) slowdown in pace that can be attributed to Trump Administration actions is 5.25-.96 or 4.29% of enrollment was lost due to the executive order and other Trump administration actions such as shutting down some outreach and advertising in the last eleven days of enrollment.

Before the election, I was assuming the 2017 Open Enrollment Period would rack up between 13.5 - 14.0 million QHP selections...between 6% - 10% more than last year. The HHS Dept. agreed with me, projecting around 13.8 million (an 8.6% increase).

Last year the federal exchange included around 76% of the total enrollments (around 9.6 million). This year, HC.gov added Kentucky, which should have bumped the ratio up to around 77% this year. Assuming 13.8 million total, that would mean roughly 10.6 million enrolling via the federal exchange.

After Trump won and the GOP immediately started the actual legislative process to repeal the Affordable Care Act with preliminary votes in both the House and Senate, I downgraded my projections to around 13.3 million nationally (10.2 million via HC.gov).

After New York and Washington State, Maryland is the 3rd state to release their final official OE4 enrollment numbers:

NEARLY 158,000 MARYLANDERS ENROLLED IN HEALTH COVERAGE FOR 2017 THROUGH THE STATE MARKETPLACE

INCLUDING MEDICAID, 501,000 HAVE ENROLLED SINCE NOV. 1

BALTIMORE (Feb. 1, 2017) – A total of 157,637 Marylanders enrolled in private health coverage plans for 2017 by yesterday’s deadline for open enrollment, capped by the largest single-day call volume ever for Maryland Health Connection, the state’s health insurance marketplace.

Including Medicaid enrollments, more than a half-million Marylanders have newly enrolled or renewed in health coverage for 2017 through the state marketplace since Nov. 1 when open enrollment began. Maryland Health Connection now covers 1.1 million in all — one of every six people in Maryland.

Hmmm...I'm honestly not sure what this last number (1.1 million covered by the exchange) refers to...they just said it was 158K QHPs + 343K in Medicaid = 501K total.

I'm actually a bit surprised that NY State of Health is the first state exchange out of the gate with final enrollment numbers, but good for them:

Press Release: NY State of Health Announces Enrollment Surges: More Than 3.6 Million New Yorkers Secure Health Coverage

Feb 1, 2017

  • Nearly 50,000 sign up during final two days of Open Enrollment
  • An additional 800,000 New Yorkers enroll through the Marketplace since January 2016

ALBANY, N.Y. (February 1, 2017) -- NY State of Health, the state’s official health plan Marketplace, today announced that more than 3.6 million New Yorkers enrolled in comprehensive health coverage through NY State of Health, a 28 percent increase from 2016.

“New York continues its commitment to bring affordable, comprehensive health coverage to New Yorkers” said NY State of Health Executive Director, Donna Frescatore. “New Yorkers now have access to affordable health insurance coverage, giving hundreds of thousands of previously uninsured individuals economic and healthcare security.”

I've stated many times over the past few weeks that between the GOP actively starting the legislative repeal process with preliminary votes, Trump actually taking office, his executive order within hours of doing so instructing the HHS Dept. to actively sabotage implementation of the ACA, and the last-minute yanking of TV advertising for the final few days of Open Enrollment that there's simply no way of making a solid prediction about what the final enrollment tally will end up being.

However, based on previous yearly patterns and spot-checks of HealthCare.Gov and the buzz from some of the state exchanges earlier today, I'm still gonna take a shot: I expect the final QHP selection tally to come in...pretty damned close to last year's 12.7 million, actually.

Officially, I'm giving it a range of anywhere between 12.4 - 13.0 million, with around 9.5 - 10.0 million of that coming via the federal exchange (which covers 39 states this year, including Kentucky) and the remaining 3 million or so being courtesy of the 12 remaining state-based exchanges.

Now that Minnesota, California and especially HealthCare.Gov (with Trump's blessing???) have issued overtime/extension periods of one type or another, this isn't particularly surprising to read, but Connect for Health Colorado is joining the Overtime Bandwagon as well:

Connect for Health Colorado® Extends Enrollment Deadline in Response to Surge in Sign-ups
Posted on Tuesday, January 31, 2017

DENVER — Connect for Health Colorado® today announced it is giving consumers who attempt to enroll by the Jan. 31 deadline three more days to complete their enrollment.

Individuals who began the enrollment process by midnight Tuesday will have until 6 p.m. Friday, Feb. 3, to choose a health insurance plan that will be in effect March 1, 2017. Friday will be the last day to purchase coverage this year, except for customers who experience a qualifying life change event, such as marriage, divorce, having a child, losing your employer-sponsored insurance, or moving to Colorado.

First Minnesota's ACA exchange, MNsure, announced an 8-Day "don't call it an extension!" Special Enrollment Period mainly targeted at providing a 25% premium discount for those who don't qualify for the normal federal APTC/CSR financial assistance.

Now, Covered California has announced their own 4-day "Overtime" period, although this is more of the standard "waiting in line" variety:

Covered California Gives Consumers More Time to ‘Cross the Finish Line’ as It Prepares for Surge of Enrollment

  • Consumers must begin the application process by the end of Jan. 31 and complete their enrollment by the end of Feb. 4.
  • Thousands of Certified Insurance Agents and Community Enrollment Partners are ready to provide free and confidential in-person assistance.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Covered California announced it is giving consumers who attempt to enroll by the Jan. 31 deadline four more days to complete their enrollment.

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