Maine

I've once again relaunched my project from last fall to track Medicaid enrollment (both standard and expansion alike) on a monthly basis for every state dating back to the ACA being signed into law.

For the various enrollment data, I'm using data from Medicaid.gov's Medicaid Enrollment Data Collected Through MBES reports. Unfortunately, they've only published enrollment data through December 2020. In some states I've been able to get more recent enrollment data from state websites and other sources.

Today I'm presenting Maine. For enrollment data from January 2021 on, I'm relying on adjusted estimates based on raw data from the Maine Dept. of Health & Human Services.

ACA Medicaid expansion didn't go into effect until 2019 (it was supposed to be implemented earlier but that was blocked by the then-GOP Governor), but since then total enrollment (including expansion) has gradually climbed as the expansion program ramped up.

 Now that I've developed a standardized format/layout & methodology for tracking both state- and county-level COVID vaccination levels by partisan lean (which can also be easily applied to other variables like education level, median income, population density, ethnicity, etc), I've started moving beyond my home state of Michigan.

Here's Maine:

• 2020 Presidential Election results via ME Secretary of State's office (thru Wikipedia)

• Vaccination data via Centers for Disease Control database

Note: The CDC lists ~29,000 Maine residents (4.1% of the total fully vaccinated) whose county of residence is unknown.

Back in late June, I noted that the Maine Insurance Dept. had issued the preliminary 2021 rate filings for the state's individual and small group market carriers. At the time, the individual market carriers were averaging rate reductions of around 4% while the small group carriers were looking to raise premiums by around 6.2%.

It was recently brought to my attention that revised rate filings have been submitted by Maine carriers for 2021...and while these still aren't the final/approved rates, they're significantly lower than the original filings.

Two of the three indy market carriers (Anthem and Harvard Pilgrim) have reduced their rates dramatically. The third (CHO) only reduced theirs by a couple of points, but the net result is that they're now averaging a 13% reduction...9 points lower than the 4 points they were already being knocked down.

The small group market carriers didnt' change their requests by as much, but they're still lower: A 4.4% average increase instead of 6.2%.

Over at healthinsurance.org, Louise Norris has already done the work for me in tracking down the preliminary 2021 individual and small group market rate changes for the state of Maine:

Average premiums expected to decrease Maine’s exchange in 2021

Maine’s three individual market insurers filed proposed rates for 2021 in June 2020 (average proposed rate changes are summarized here by the Maine Bureau of Insurance). For the second year in a row, average rates are expected to decrease for 2021:

Maine Governor Janet Mills had already announced her intentions regarding moving Maine to a state-based ACA exchange last fall, but now she and state legislative leaders are making it official with the rollout of a new bill...but they're including several other important improvements as well, and I'm mostly cheering all of these, although the logic is a bit confusing on a couple of points:

Mills, Jackson & Gideon Announce Bill to Improve Health Insurance for Maine People and Small Businesses

Augusta, MAINE – Governor Janet Mills, Senate President Troy Jackson, and Speaker of the House Sara Gideon today announced legislation to improve private health insurance for Maine people and small businesses. LD 2007, The Made for Maine Health Coverage Act, would make some of the most common medical visits free or less costly, simplify shopping for a plan, leverage federal funds to help make premiums more affordable for small businesses, and put Maine in the driver’s seat to ensure that all Maine people have clear choices for their coverage.

MLR rebate payments for 2018 are being sent out to enrollees even as I type this. The data for 2018 MLR rebates won't be officially posted for another month or so, but I've managed to acquire it early, and after a lot of number-crunching the data, I've recompiled it into an easy-to-read format.

But that's not all! In addition to the actual 2018 MLR rebates, I've gone one step further and have taken an early crack at trying to figure out what 2019 MLR rebates might end up looking like next year (for the Individual Market only). In order to do this, I had to make several very large assumptions:

Some Guy, June 25, 2015 (right after the Supreme Court ruling in King vs. Burwell):

It's even conceivable--unlikely, but conceivable--that a few years from now, after 1) The ACA has become even more firmly entrenched nationally; 2) the software/technology for running a state exchange has become even more streamlined, simplified, faster, easier to use, cheaper, etc etc; and 3) (hopefully) some changed attitudes/changed administration officials (ahem), a few states on HC.gov now may even decide to go ahead and move onto their own "full" exchange/website after all...completely of their own volition.

February 2018:

Nevada wants out of federal health exchange

Nevada's Silver State Health Insurance Exchange took the first step on Thursday to getting out of the federal healthcare.gov system and build its own exchange.

Back in June I noted that Maine's Bureau of Professional & Financial Regulation released their preliminary 2020 rate filings for the Individual and Small Group markets. At the time, the three carriers on their Indy market were requesting average rate increases of around 4.7% next year.

In July I reported that the carriers themselves sliced their unsubsidized 2020 rates down of their own volition, to a 1.6% decrease on average.

Last week, after a public comment meeting, it looks like the Maine Insurance Dept. went ahead and approved the lower, revised rates for all three individual market carriers.

Last month I noted that Maine's Bureau of Professional & Financial Regulation released their preliminary 2020 rate filings for the Individual and Small Group markets. At the time, the three carriers on their Indy market were requesting average rate increases of around 4.7% next year.

Well, the final/approved rate changes won't happen for another month or so, but it looks like the carriers themselves have sliced their unsubsidized 2020 rates down of their own volition:

Maine’s three providers of individual health insurance on the Affordable Care Act marketplace have revised their rate requests for 2020, significantly lowering their projected rates.

Previously, the insurers had sought modest average rate increases of 1 percent to 8 percent. Under the revised filings, two of the three insurers are now requesting decreases for individual plans, and the other is seeking an increase of less than 1 percent.

The state of Maine's Bureau of Professional & Financial Regulation has released their preliminary 2020 rate filings for the Individual and Small Group markets. Overall, the three carriers participating in their individual market are seeking a weighted average rate increase of 4.7% vs. last year. If approved as is, that would bring the average unsubsidized premium up from $675/month to $707/month, or around $381/year.

It's important to keep in mind why premiums are going up. I've included screenshots of the rate filing memos--Maine Community Health Options, which holds over 50% of the individual marketshare, clarifies that the combination of the individual mandate being repealed and the expansion of #ShortAssPlans are causing an 11% increase. They also note that Maine's recent Medicaid expansion implementation may be a factor, although normally that reduces premiums since lower-income populations tend to be less healthy than higher-income populations, so I'm not sure what to make of that.