Arizona: Medicaid expansion enrollment up 32% since COVID hit; total Medicaid up 20%

I've once again relaunched my project from last fall to track Medicaid enrollment (both standard and expansion alike) on a monthly basis for every state dating back to the ACA being signed into law.

For the various enrollment data, I'm using data from Medicaid.gov's Medicaid Enrollment Data Collected Through MBES reports. Unfortunately, they've only published enrollment data through December 2020. In some states I've been able to get more recent enrollment data from state websites and other sources.

Today I'm presenting Arizona. For enrollment data from January 2021 on, I'm relying on adjusted estimates based on raw data from the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS).

Arizona total Medicaid enrollment hovered around 1.1 million people (including ACA expansion) for several years until the COVID pandemic hit last spring.

Since COVID hit, however, non-ACA Medicaid enrollment has jumped 16.2%, while ACA expansion enrollment is up 31.7%. This brings total enrollment up by around 19.8% from pre-COVID levels.

Arizona has 7,151,502 residents. As of May 2021:

• around 2.24 million are enrolled in Medicaid overall, or 31.3% of the population
• around 1.67 million are enrolled in non-ACA Medicaid
• around 569,000 are enrolled in ACA Medicaid expansion.

• Add in the ~131,000 subsidized ACA exchange enrollees and that's around 700,000 Arizona residents who would lose healthcare coverage if the Supreme Court strikes down the Affordable Care Act, or 9.8% of the state population.