I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
(data for 3rd/booster shots aren't available at the county level in most states yet)
I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
For Colorado, Georgiaand Texas, I'm using their COVID vaccine dashboards set up by the state health departments.
For California, I'm using the CDC data for most counties and the state health dept. dashboard data for the 8 small counties which the CDC isn't allowed to post data for.
Here's the weekly look at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020).
The partisan ratio of case rates are now running 2.4x higher per capita in the reddest tenth of the country than the bluest tenth, down from 3.0x higher in late October:
Instead of looking at the cumulative county-level COVID death rates by 2020 partisan lean since the Delta Variant wave hit the United States in June, the graphs below look at how that has played out for each individual month since then.
The data does not include the U.S. territories (since they don't vote in the November Presidential election), and it's also missing around 4% of total COVID deaths across the 50 states + DC due to their county of residence being unknown.
With that in mind, here's what the Delta wave has looked like in June, July, August, September, October, November and the first 2 weeks of December 2021:
I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine). Data for 3rd/booster shots aren't available at the county level in most states yet.
I base my percentages on the total population, as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
For Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, and Texas, I'm using their COVID vaccine dashboards set up by the state health departments.
For California, I'm using the CDC data for most counties and the state health dept. dashboard data for the 8 small counties which the CDC isn't allowed to post data for.
Here's the weekly look at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020).
The ratio of case rates has started to drop; new cases are now running 2.59x higher per capita in the reddest tenth of the country than the bluest tenth, down from 3.0x higher seven weeks ago:
I go by FULLY vaccinated residents only (defined as 2 doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine).
I base my percentages on the total population, as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
For California, I'm using the CDC data for most counties and the state health dept. dashboard data for the 8 small counties which the CDC isn't allowed to post data for.
Here's the weekly look at the rate of COVID-19 cases & deaths at the county level since the end of June, broken out by partisan lean (i.e, what percent of the vote Donald Trump received in 2020).
The ratio of case rates has started to drop; new cases are now running 2.67x higher per capita in the reddest tenth of the country than the bluest tenth, down from 3.0x higher six weeks ago:
Yesterday there was a bit of a brouhaha caused when NPR reporters Geoff Brumfiel and Daniel Wood published an in-depth report on the partisan divide when it comes to county-level COVID-19 vaccination and death rates, which was heavily influenced by my own work over the past seven months, including two hour-long interviews in which we went into in-depth discussions of data sources, methodology and conclusions.
The controversial aspect was due to the fact that their published piece originally failed to mention my involvement or assistance in any way whatsoever.
After being called out on this by myself and others, Brumfiel called me to personally apologize and rectify the situation. To his credit, he took full responsibility and specifically noted that his colleague, Daniel Wood, had nothing to do with the oversight. Also to his credit, he arranged for the NPR story to be quickly updated to mention my assistance by name as well as to link to one of my own related COVID data analysis posts:
Pro-Trump counties now have far higher COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame
by Daniel Wood, Geoff Brumfiel
Since May 2021, people living in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump during the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19 as those who live in areas that went for now-President Biden. That's according to a new analysis by NPR that examines how political polarization and misinformation are driving a significant share of the deaths in the pandemic.
