Weekly Update: U.S. #COVID19 vaccination levels by COUNTY & Partisan Lean

Methodology reminders:

• I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
  • (data for 3rd/booster shots aren't available at the county level in most states yet)

• I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).

• For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
  • For Hawaii, Vermont, Virginia and West Virginia, I'm using data from the COVID Act Now Risk & Vaccine Tracker database.
  • For Colorado, Georgia and Texas, I'm using their COVID vaccine dashboards set up by the state health departments.
  • For California, I'm using the CDC data for most counties and the state health dept. dashboard data for the 8 small counties which the CDC isn't allowed to post data for.
  • For Massachusetts, I'm using the CDC data for most counties but am now using the official Massachusetts Health Dept. weekly data report for Barnstable, Dukes & Nantucket counties, which the CDC only has partial data for.

• The 5 major U.S. territories don't vote for President in the general election, preventing me from displaying them in the main graph, but I have them listed down the right side.

• Alaska's 2020 election results are estimated thanks to an updated analysis by RRH Elections (all other states +DC have been using 2020 county-level election data all along).

• New: I decided to go back and double-check the Trump 2020 vote percent for every county in every state just to make sure there weren't any errors. I found a handful of very minor discrepancies (off by less than 0.5% in the vast majority of cases); there were 2 small counties which had significant corrections. None of them amounted to even a minor rounding error in any ofthe graphs below.

• BY POPULAR REQUEST, here's an updated Google Spreadsheet with all the relevant data.

With all this in mind, here's what things looked like as of December 20th, 2021:

It's also important to note that both the R2 (correlation) and slope formulas, which had plateaued for most of October and November, appear to be increasing again now that 5 - 11 year olds have started receiving their 2nd Pfizer shot:

Here's what the data above looks like in bar graph format, broken out in rough deciles (tenths of the total population, or around 33.1 million people apiece). The vaccination rate in the bluest tenth of the nation is running 64% higher than the reddest tenth:

• The minor Trump 2020 vote percentage corrections noted above have nudged a few counties up or down one population bracket below going forward, but nothing significant.

Other things especially worth noting:

• Kalawao County, HI (pop. 82) is still the only one which is 100% vaccinated.

• Counties with over 90% of their populations having received their 2nd shot have ~159,000 residents, including the above plus:
  • Dukes County, MA (pop. 20,600)
  • Nantucket County, MA (pop. 14,255)
  • Hudspeth County, TX (pop. 2,912)
  • Bristol Bay, AK (pop. 844)
  • Santa Cruz County, AZ (pop. 47,669)
  • Presidio County, TX (pop. 6,131)
  • Apache County, AZ (pop. 66,021)

• Counties with over 80% of their total populations having received their 2nd shot have ~7.72 million residents, including the above plus:
  • Haines County, AK (pop. 2080)
  • Marin County, CA (pop. 262,321)
  • Mono County, CA (pop. 13,195)
  • San Francisco County, CA (pop. 873,965)
  • Santa Clara County, CA (pop. 1,936,259)
  • Pitkin County, CO (pop. 17,358)
  • San Juan County, CO (pop. 705)
  • Miami-Dade County, FL (pop. 2,701,767)
  • West Feliciana County, LA (pop. 15,310)
  • Cumberland County, ME (pop. 303,069)
  • Montgomery County, MD (pop. 1,062,061)
  • Big Horn County, MT (pop. 13,124)
  • Rosebud County, MT (pop. 8,329)
  • Los Alamos County, NM (pop. 19,419)
  • Webb County, TX (pop. 267,114)
  • Summit County, UT (pop. 42,357)
  • Menominee County, WI (pop. 4,255)
  • Teton County, WY (pop. 23,331)

• 122 Counties with 45.9 million residents have over 70% of their total populations having received their 2nd shot.

• Of counties with more than 100,000 residents, the following counties have vaccinated at least 75% of their total populations:
  • Alameda County, CA (pop. 1,682,353)
  • Contra Costa County, CA (pop. 1,165,927)
  • Imperial County, CA (pop. 179,702)
  • Marin County, CA (pop. 262,321)
  • San Francisco County, CA (pop. 873,965)
  • San Mateo County, CA (pop. 764,442)
  • Santa Clara County, CA (pop. 1,936,259)
  • Fairfield County, CT (pop. 957,419)
  • Middlesex County, CT (pop. 164,245)
  • Miami-Dade County, FL** (pop. 2,701,767)
  • Sumter County, FL (pop. 129,752)
  • Honolulu County, HI (pop. 1,016,508)
  • Cumberland County, ME (pop. 303,069)
  • York County, ME (pop. 211,972)
  • Howard County, MD (pop. 332,317)
  • Montgomery County, MD (pop. 1,062,061)
  • Barnstable County, MA (pop. 228,996)
  • Manhattan, NY (pop. 1,694,251)
  • Webb County, TX (pop. 267,114)
  • Chittenden County, VT (pop. 168,323)
  • King County, WA (pop. 2,269,675)
  • Dane County, WI (pop. 561,504)

**I find Miami-Dade's supposed vaccination rate highly suspicious based on their case rate since June, but whatever.

• At the opposite end, there's 11 counties which have vaccinated less than 20% of their total populations, with ~57,000 residents:
  • Garfield County, MT (Pop. 1,173)
  • McCone County, MT (Pop. 1,729)
  • Arthur County, NE (Pop. 434)
  • Grant County, NE (Pop. 611)
  • McPherson County, NE (Pop. 399)
  • Storey County, NV (Pop. 4,104)
  • Slope County, ND (Pop. 706)
  • Holmes County, OH (Pop. 44,223)
  • Harding County, SD (Pop. 1,311)
  • McPherson County, SD (Pop. 2,411)
  • King County, TX (Pop. 265)

• Of counties with more than 100,000 residents, the following counties have vaccinated less than 40% of their total populations:
  • Etowah County, AL (pop. 103436)
  • Houston County, AL (pop. 107202)
  • Lee County, AL (pop. 174241)
  • Limestone County, AL (pop. 103570)
  • Morgan County, AL (pop. 123421)
  • Shelby County, AL (pop. 223024)
  • Tuscaloosa County, AL (pop. 227036)
  • Matanuska-Susitna, AK (pop. 107081)
  • Mohave County, AZ (pop. 213267)
  • Bartow County, GA (pop. 108,901)
  • Carroll County, GA (pop. 119,148)
  • Lowndes County, GA (pop. 118,251)
  • Muscogee County, GA (pop. 206,922)
  • Paulding County, GA (pop. 168,661)
  • Richmond County, GA (pop. 206,607)
  • Canyon County, ID (pop. 231,105)
  • Kootenai County, ID (pop. 171,362)
  • Warren County, KY (pop. 134,554)
  • Calcasieu County, LA (pop. 216,785)
  • Livingston County, LA (pop. 142,282)
  • Flathead County, MT (pop. 104,357)
  • Harnett County, NC (pop. 133,568)
  • Anderson County, SC (pop. 203,718)
  • Bradley County, TN (pop. 108,620)
  • Bell County, TX (pop. 370,647)
  • Ector County, TX (pop. 165,171)
  • Berkeley County, WV (pop. 122,076)

• There are 49 counties with more than 1 million residents. Of those, the highest-vaxxed is Montgomery County, MD (81.5% vaxxed) while the lowest-vaxxed is Wayne County, MI (home of Detroit), which has only vaccinated 49.1% of its population.