"Possibly because of my love affair with ships and boats, the Titanic story has always fascinated and still grips me, but one scene in particular always gets to me: the sight of the ship's band, there on the decks as the ship was sinking, not panicking, not running for their life, but doing their duty by sitting there and playing and giving strength and comfort to those who were about to die with them and the lucky few in the boats."
As you may recall, there was a day or two last week where I was as despondent over the election results as anyone, and I was deeply concerned that Trump being elected—combined with his promise to join the GOP in wiping out the ACA—would cause people to abandon the currently ongoing 2017 Open Enrollment Period...thus making my pre-election projection utterly meaningless.
Instead, the exact opposite appears to be happening...or, at the very least, the election results don’t seem to be keeping anyone from signing up. Some people may be abandoning their plans to enroll via the exchange out of fear that it’s gonna get yanked away from them a few months into the new year, forcing them to scramble later...but many others seem to be realizing that the law, including the federal tax credits and CSR assistance, is still on the books and will continue to be through Jan. 20th at the very soonest...and, depending on how much squabbling and legal steps the GOP has to go through, could potentially stick around mostly as is for up to 2 more years. In any event, many have concluded that it’d be better to go ahead and sign up now so they’re covered for as long as possible.
I noted last week that contrary to my concern that OE4 might get off to a slow start due to people holding off until after the election, the early enrollment numbers appear to be right on pace with my official projections after all. In fact, the single day's worth of data provided for HealthCare.Gov ("over 100,000"* enrollments on 11/09 specifically) is 17% higher than what I was expecting it to be, although obviously that could vary widely day to day. The numbers from Minnesota are also extremely impressive, running over 6x higher than the same period last year, that's mostly due to their unique enrollment cap situation, so that's not much of an indicator of any other state.
*(Update 11:55am: This Washington Post article gives HC.gov's 11/09 tally as 105K instead of simply "over 100K").
UPDATE 1/15/17: Reposting this given this evening's "news" that Donald Trump is "promising" to allegedly replace Obamacare (the ACA) with "insurance for everybody" in some mysterious fashion which wouldn't involve being "single payer" (assuming he even has a clue what that actually means):
Ever since Trump's stunning electoral college victory on Tuesday, there's been a lot of hand-wringing (including by myself) about the Republican Party finally getting to actually make good on their obsessive desire to kill off the Affordable Care Act.
At the same time, there's been a similar number of articles written about why doing so might be trickier than they think. Many of those articles focus on the actual legalities involved (which parts can be killed via reconciliation, which parts can't, what the timeline would be and so on), while others go into the political and economic impact of actually repealing the law and what their replacement might look like. This is what I'm writing about in this entry.
As I keep noting, the DC exchange insists on presenting their enrollment numbers as cumulative since October2013.
As a result, I have to subtract the prior numbers from the current ones to find out the net increase in QHP selections, Medicaid enrollments and SHOP enrollments.
As a result, until I hear otherwise, I'm going to assume that the enrollment rate is tracking my original, pre-election projections...in which case this is where things should stand as of an hour ago:
Just yesterday I noted that Minnesota's ACA exchange is full bore ahead, especially due to their unique first-come, first-serve enrollment cap cut-off for 4 of the 5 individual market carriers. They're still moving at a breakneck pace:
ST. PAUL, Minn.—More Minnesotans have shopped early and enrolled in comprehensive health care coverage though MNsure than ever before. In just the first nine days, more than 20,000 Minnesotans enrolled through the state's health care exchange. It took about six weeks to achieve this milestone last year.
The results of this week's elections do not change MNsure's focus on providing high quality customer service to Minnesotans shopping for health care coverage and encouraging Minnesotans to take advantage of the financial assistance available only through MNsure.
As I've been noting for a few months now, Connect for Health Colorado's monthly enrollment reports are chock full of data and confusing as hell at the same time.
As a result, I've started simply presenting them without much commentary. Here's the October report (remember, this is for currently enrolled 2016 policies, not 2017 Open Enrollment policies:
Unlike most states, the Massachusetts Health Connector has not only seen no net attrition since the end of Open Enrollment, but has actually seen a net increase in enrollment...mainly due to their unique "ConnectorCare" policies, which are fully Qualified Health Plans (QHPs) but have additional financial assistance for those who qualify and which are available year-round instead of being limited to the open enrollment period.
The amount of the increase depends on which "official" number you start with; the MA exchange claimed 196,554 people as of 1/31/16...while the ASPE report gives it as 213,883 as of the next day....yet their March report claims 208,000 effectuated enrollees as of February.
