Indiana: Medicaid expansion enrollment up 52% since COVID hit; total Medicaid up 27%

I've once again relaunched my project from last fall to track Medicaid enrollment (both standard and expansion alike) on a monthly basis for every state dating back to the ACA being signed into law.

For the various enrollment data, I'm using data from Medicaid.gov's Medicaid Enrollment Data Collected Through MBES reports. Unfortunately, they've only published enrollment data through December 2020. In some states I've been able to get more recent enrollment data from state websites and other sources.

Today I'm presenting Indiana. For enrollment data from January 2021 on, I'm relying on adjusted estimates based on raw data from the Indiana Family & Social Services Administration.

Indiana total Medicaid enrollment hovered around 1.3 million people (including ACA expansion) for several years until the COVID pandemic hit last spring. Oddly, CMS records show there being a substantial population of "previously eligible" expansion enrollees throughout 2015, 2016 & 2017 before they just sort of disappear starting in 2018, absorbed into the "traditional Medicaid" population. Huh.

Since COVID hit, non-ACA Medicaid enrollment has jumped 19.6%, while ACA expansion enrollment is up a whopping 52.3%. This brings total enrollment up by around 27.4% from pre-COVID levels.

Indiana has 6,785,528 residents. As of April 2021:

• around 1.72 million were enrolled in Medicaid overall, or 25.4% of the population
• around 1.23 million were enrolled in non-ACA Medicaid
• around 492,000 were enrolled in ACA Medicaid expansion.

• Add in the ~101,000 subsidized ACA exchange enrollees and that's around 593,000 Indiana residents who would lose healthcare coverage if the Supreme Court strikes down the Affordable Care Act, or 8.7% of the state population.