As I noted yesterday, there are three states which had unusually large discrepancies between the official HHS and state exchange QHP enrollments:
New York came in over 65,000 lower than the number I had for a simple reason: The New York exchange lumps enrollees in their Child Health Plus program in with QHPs, even though technically this isn't a QHP program. There were over 40,000 of these as of the end of February; this number has climbed to 65,028 as of 4/19.
Since Child Health Plus is privately funded (and therefore isn't on the Medicaid/CHIP side), but also isn't officially a QHP either according to HHS, I've moved it over to the "Off Exchange QHP" column.
This is actually pretty impressive; NY had been averaging around 4,200/day up until yesterday, when they hit 949,428, so this means they racked up another 11,334 in the final day (around 5,600 QHPs and 5,700 Medicaid):
No breakout between Private QHPs & Medicaid/CHIP yet, but NY State of Health just issued this press release:
ALBANY, NY (April 15, 2014) – NY State of Health (NYSOH), the State’s official health plan marketplace, reported that as of 9 a.m. today, 1,311,271 New Yorkers have completed their applications and 949,428 have enrolled for coverage since the launch of the Marketplace on October 1, 2013. More than 70 percent of those who have enrolled to date were uninsured at the time of application. The Marketplace is well on its way to meeting or exceeding its enrollment goal of 1.1 million people by the end of 2016.
This figure is about 16,200 higher than just 4 days ago, meaning NY is averaging around 4K/day. Assuming no final day spike (or drop-off), their final total should come in at around 954,000 people.
Not gonna update the spreadsheet or graph until I get the actual QHP/Medicaid breakout, however, since those are almost always provided within a few hours of the combined number in NY.
The 3 largest states with their own exchanges are California, New York and Washington State. WA did not allow an extension period, so that leaves CA & NY...the latter of which has just issued it's first post-3/11 update:
That's 1,630 QHPs per day, which is actually very close (97%) to the 1,683/day that they averaged back in February.
IF that's typical nationally (and that's a huge if), then that would suggest around 32K/day or around half a million total by 4/15...which is right at the low end of my new, lowered projection of 7.6M.
New York joins the 3/31 Final club ("9am" appears to include enrollments through midnight the night before, which makes sense...takes awhile to fully process/etc...)
Just out from @NYStateofHealth: As of 9 a.m. today, Total enrollments: 865,487 Medicaid: 453,386 Private: 412,101 cc @charles_gaba
More great news: Specific numbers out of New York, and apparently the 826K figure included about 6K more QHPs than I thought (and 6K fewere on Medicaid, of course):
Since the state website launched on Oct. 1, 826,812 people had signed up for coverage as of 9 a.m. Monday, with 436,304 qualifying for Medicaid and 390,508 obtaining private insurance, she said.
In addition, while I thought the extra 14K total was between 9am and this evening, according to this article 826K was actually the 9am figure, meaning an even higher eventual total. Doesn't really matter at this point, I suppose; the final numbers will all come out soon...
...as of 9 a.m. today, 1,162,795 New Yorkers have completed their applications and 812,033 have enrolled for coverage since the launch of the Marketplace on October 1, 2013.
Yeah, well, that was then; this is now (around 8:45pm):
Yup, that's right: Another 14,779 enrollments (QHP+Medicaid combined) since 9:00am.
Again, assuming a 38/62 split, that's another 5,600 QHPs and 9,179 Medicaid enrollees, for a total of around:
Yesterday there was an unofficial NY count of 100K total enrollments (QHPs + Medicaid) in the past week (which I estimated broke down to 12,920 QHPs on Friday & Saturday, or 6,460 per day).
Today they gave the official number (still not broken out, though): 812,033 combined.
ALBANY (March 30, 2014) – NY State of Health (NYSOH), the State’s official health plan marketplace, reported that as of 9 a.m. today, 1,162,795 New Yorkers have completed their applications and 812,033 have enrolled for coverage since the launch of the Marketplace on October 1, 2013. More than 70 percent of those who have enrolled to date were uninsured at the time of application.
I have to be careful about using this as an actual spreadsheet entry because it doesn't specify the start date, the end date or the QHP/Medicaid breakout, but things are moving so quickly now that I'm not sure how much difference it makes:
According to @NYStateofHealth Nearly 100,000 New Yorkers have enrolled over the last week.
NY State of Health had already reported 717K total enrollments as of 3/23, which had increased to 782K as of 3/28, which accounts for 65,000 of this number (call it 99K since they say "nearly" 100K). Call it 34,000 in the past 2 days.
If the QHP/Medicaid breakout is the same 38% / 62% that the other 65K from last week was (it should be very close to this), that's another 12,920 QHPs in 2 days, or 6,460 exchange QHPs per day.
