IMPORTANT:See this detailed explanation of how I've come up with the following estimated maximum approved weighted average rate increases for Kentucky.
Fortunately, as I explain in the first link above, I've still been able to piece together rough estimates of the maximum possible and most likely approved average rate increase for the Kentucky individual market:
This AP article provides snippets about a handful of states; it'd be nice if they just released the actual report so we could see the hard expansion numbers (as opposed to the total increase numbers, which are still obviously useful but don't distinguish between traditional Medicaid and ACA expansion enrollees):
In Kentucky, for example, enrollments during the 2014 fiscal year were more than double the number projected, with almost 311,000 newly eligible residents signing up. That's greater than what was initially predicted through 2021.
...At least 14 states have seen new enrollments exceed their original projections, causing at least seven to increase their cost estimates for 2017, according to an Associated Press analysis of state budget projections, Medicaid enrollments and cost details in the expansion states. A few states said they could not provide original projections.
Last week Oregon became the first state to actually approve their 2016 individual/family and small group market policy rate changes. Yesterday, Kentucky appears to have become the second:
Unfortunately, as you can see, while the average rate request for each company is listed, it isn't easy to find the actual enrollment/market share data for most of them, making it impossible to get a weighted average. In addition, there's an awful lot of "n/a / 0%" entries for some pretty big companies. Usually this means that they're new to the market, but I'm not sure that's the case here.
Anyway, assuming that I have the partial data above accurate, it looks like Kentucky's individual market changes will range from an 11% decrease (for WellCare Health Plans of Kentucky, Inc.) to a wince-inducing 25% increase (for the Kentucky Health CO-OP). I don't know how many are enrolled in WellCare right now, but the CO-OP has 53,000 customers, so expect some shuffling around...except, again, I have no idea what that's a 25.1% increase from.
Now that the King v. Burwell Supreme Court oral arguments are out of the way (with radio silence expected until they announce the decision sometime in June) , the next Big Development to keep an eye on ACA-wise is...Tax Season! There will be plenty of stories about how many people have to pay back some/all of their 2014 tax credits, how many will receive additional tax credits...and, most germane to this site, how many additional people enroll via the exchanges to avoid having to pay (most) of the higher tax penalty next year for not being covered in 2015 during the Tax Filing Season Special Enrollment Period (SEP), or #ACATaxTime as I prefer to call it.
MARYLAND HEALTH CONNECTION ADDING ENROLLMENT PERIOD FOR MARYLANDERS UNAWARE THEY WOULD OWE TAX PENALTY WITHOUT COVERAGE
Special Enrollment Period will run March 15 through April 30
BALTIMORE (Feb. 25, 2015) — Maryland Health Connection is allowing consumers who owe a tax penalty for not having health coverage in 2014 to still enroll for 2015 coverage through a special enrollment period that will run March 15 through April 30.
Consumers who owe or have paid a tax penalty for not having coverage in 2014 would pay a higher penalty for this year if they also did not enroll for 2015. The open enrollment period to buy a Qualified Health Plan for 2015 ended Feb. 15.
The special enrollment period is for Marylanders who must pay the penalty for lacking health insurance in 2014 and who attest that they became aware of the penalty during this income tax filing season after the Feb. 15 close of open enrollment for 2015 coverage.
OK, you can scratch Kentucky off the list; this leaves just 2 states left (Connecticut and Idaho) which haven't provided enrollment data thorugh the official 2/15 deadline:
2014/2015 Open Enrollment stats as of Thursday 2/19/2015:
Open enrollment with kynect ended this past weekend on February 15, 2015. If Kentuckians make a good faith effort to complete their enrollments with kynect prior to the February 15, 2015 deadline but were unable to do so due to technical difficulties with the application process or problems reaching the call center, we will work with applicants to secure that coverage through February 28, 2015.
Please contact the call center at 1-855-4kynect and ask to be transferred to the Kentucky Health Benefit Exchange (KHBE) Tier II staff for assistance with these applications.
Kentucky was the last state to announce some sort of of "In Line by Midnight"/Overtime extension period.
Kentucky's previous update had them at 92,886 QHPs and 38,547 additional Medicaid enrollees via kynect, as of 1/22.
Today's update brings these numbers up to 95,927 QHPs and 46,422 added to Medicaid, increases of 3,041 and 7,875 respectively (through yesterday).
That's 217/day on the private side, during a the slow patch. In order to reach the HHS target of 107K QHP selections, they'll have to average 1,100 per day. With the expected deadline surge, this will be tough but doable. Reaching my KY target of 130K, on the other hand, would need 3,400/day, which doesn't seem to be in the cards.
2014/2015 Open Enrollment stats as of Thursday 2/5/2015:
OK, that's 92,886 QHPs total, or 208/day since the December 15th deadline. At that rate, they'll likely add a minimum of 5,000 more by 2/15 if there's no mid-February surge; more likely they'll add between 10-15K more, for a total of perhaps 108K at the outside, just barely hitting the HHS Dept's target (107K), but coming up short of mine (130K)...but we'll have to see...
