Two of the most heavily Republican states, Utah and Wyoming, appear to be moving closer to an expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. Other GOP-dominated states, like Indiana and Tennessee, are also looking more closely at it, despite the hostility of their party’s leaders toward Obamacare.
...Gov. Matt Mead of Wyoming, where Republicans hold 78 of 90 seats in the legislature, acknowledged his opposition to Obamacare but said the statehad to be realistic by embracing Medicaid expansion in one form or another. “I don’t think we can say to those people in Wyoming who are working [and] who cannot get insurance that we’re not going to do anything,” he said.
...While the odds for expansion in Wyoming remain uncertain, Utah seems likely to move in the coming months. There, Gov. Gary Herbert made the case on moral grounds — as a duty to help people he described as “our neighbors, our friends and our family members.”
This one is a bit squirrelly to suss out, and I'm not sure that I've done so correctly, so bear with me. According to the (very short) article:
MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) — State officials say Alabama Medicaid's monthly enrollment has topped 1 million for the first time.
Officials said Thursday that a review of data for the first five months of the year show the milestone happened in February. Officials attribute the increase to a federally required transfer of children from the state's All Kids program and changes in how Medicaid eligibility is determined. Officials say the numbers also reflect the first enrollment of individuals who applied for coverage through the federal health exchange under the federal Affordable Care Act.
Enrollment has remained above 1 million in March, April and May.
OK, this doesn't give a complete picture of Alabama's exchange QHP payment rate for two reasons: First, because the 82% figure is a blend of 85K via the exchange and another 20K off-exchange enrollees; second, because while BCBS does have the lion's share (87%) of exchange QHP enrollees in the state, there's still another 12,870 QHPs (out of the 97,870 total in Alabama) which belong to other insurance companies, which may have a higher or lower payment rate to date.
Having said that, assuming that the ratios are representative on both counts, it looks like about 82% of Alabama's enrollees have paid so far:
Some 82 percent of those enrolling in Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Alabama through the exchanges have paid their first month's premium, mirroring figures released today by other large insurers in preparation for congressional testimony.
"We have enrolled over 105,000 members both on and off the federally facilitated exchange in Alabama," said Koko Mackin, BCBS of Alabama said in an email to Al.com. "Over 85,000 members enrolled through the federal exchange, while another 20,000 signed up directly with Blue Cross -- 82% of our exchange enrollees have paid their first month’s premium."
Short and sweet...Alabama was at 55,034 as of 3/01, so this appears to be a spike of nearly 22,000 QHPs. It's technically feasible that the 77K figure includes the 18K Medicaid enrollees which Alabama (a non-expansion state) has added, but I doubt it; that would only leave 4K QHPs in March, and they had over 11K in February, so I think I'm safe here:
So far 77,000 Alabamians have signed up for health insurance through the marketplace.
UPDATE: On the down side, I was off by 4% this time around.
On the up side, I UNDERESTIMATED:
Actual Feb. enrollments: 942,833, for a total of 4,242,325 thru 3/01/14.
Sarah Kliff at Vox just announced that the February HHS report is expected to be released today at around 4:00pm. A few items in anticipation of that:
As I've noted several times, I'm projecting the report to total around 902,000 exchange-based private QHP enrollments for the month of February (technically 2/02 - 3/01)
If accurate, this would bring the cumulative total of exchange-based private QHP enrollments to 4.202 million (from 10/1/13 - 3/01/14)
From the data I have, the average daily enrollment rate in February was almost identical to that of January, which had about 1.146 million QHP enrollments. HOWEVER, the January report included five weeks of data (12/28 - 2/01), while the February report will only include four weeks (2/02 - 3/01). Therefore, even at the same daily average, it'll be about 20% lower no matter what.
Don't be surprised if Peter Lee of CoveredCA decides to steal some thunder by announcing that California has enrolled 1,000,000 QHPs all by itself either today or tomorrow. However, that would include the past 10 days, while the HHS number will only run thru 3/01.
If you want to get REALLY specific, call it 902,800 and 4,202,292.
I've been dead-on target 6 times in a row without hyping up my projections beforehand. This time I am hyping myself up beforehand, so I'll probably be way off...but as long as I've UNDERestimated the tally, I'll be perfectly fine with that...
The report will be released in about 5 minutes, but my kid gets home from school in about 10, so it'll be a good 20 minutes before I can really post anything. Feel free to follow Sarah Kliff of Vox in the meantime!
