Update x3: ACA Signups: My Final Projection & Important California News

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

A few more minor updates today, but honestly, with the deadline having passed in a few states, extended to tonight in most, and extended until through Friday in still others, it's gonna be chaotic to keep up for a few days.

HOWEVER, here's where things stand as of 11:30am, 12/24/13 (thanks to ArcticStones for the Vermont & Colorado updates):

--CALIFORNIA: They hit 30,000 private enrollments yesterday, up from 15K/day 2 weeks ago to 20K/day last week. I currently have them at around 450,000 total, which coincides with their "over 400K" tweet from 24 hours ago (ie, there's been a good 30-60K more since then).

--VERMONT: OK, this gets very confusing. VT supposedly has 57K uninsured (or 65K according to other sources). However, the current tally has 45K enrollees (24K private, 21K Medicaid), plus another 33K who are supposedly being automatically shifted over to Medicaid...which already gets us to 78,000 people. Obviously there's a lot of overlap here, and/or people who already had coverage who are simply switching to an ACA-compliant one via the exchange.

Well, today comes even more confusing news:

About 20,000 Vermonters have used the website to select a plan as of Monday, according to Larson. Another 30,000 have been enrolled through the additional options available to small business.

Scott Coriell, an aide to Shumlin, said the remaining 15,000 of the 65,000 or so Vermonters required to obtain coverage through the exchange are likely eligible for a Medicaid plan or will have their current coverage extended.

Until I receive a more specific breakdown, I'm leaving VT as it currently is.

--Washington State: They're up to 50,000 "fully enrolled" from 32,000 a few days ago. However, I'm not sure whether these are simply drawn from the other 61,000 "partly enrolled" figure that's also listed or if this is an additional 18,000. Have contacted the Exchange, will update the chart as necessary.

--COLORADO: "Connect for Health Colorado's chief executive expected to tally 40,000
health insurance enrollments during a deadline-driven surge of sign-ups."

Normally I wouldn't use an "expected" number, but CO was already at 35.3K a few days ago, so this seems more than reasonable.

--CONNECTICUT: Their official deadline expired last night; they were enrolling 400 - 500 PER HOUR at one point, and expected nearly 60,000 enrollees as of midnight.

Again, it's "expected" to hit 60K, but again, they were at 46.5K over a week ago so this seems likely. I don't know the exact breakdown between private/Medicaid, but based on prior numbers it should be roughly 52/48, so I have CT at 30,400 private / 29,000 Medicaid/SCHIP.

All told, this morning's tally now stands at:

1,777,171    Private Enrollments
3,924,092    Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion

5,701,263    Total

See everything at ACASignups.net

Update: FWIW, the ACA enrollments aren't the only numbers ramping up:

Visitors to ACASignups.net:

October: 8,100
November: 17,500
December: 27,000 (through yesterday)

Meanwhile, while the state-by-state target numbers may have been pulled out of thin air by someone at Yahoo Finance, it's still worth noting that Connecticut has broken 86% of their 3/31/14 enrollment projection; New York is at 63%; Colorado, Minnesota, Rhode Island & Vermont are past 40% and both California and Washington State are past 30% of theirs.

Update x2: Oh, yeah...and nationally, we've broken through 25% of the 7 million CBO projection, for whatever that's worth.

Here's the latest version of the graph; I've added lines separating each month:

 

New York just reported 25,531 more enrollments yesterday alone! Not sure if that's all private or a mix, so I'm assuming 71% private (same ratio as existing number), which brings the tally up again to:

1,793,781 Private Enrollments
3,931,703 Medicaid/SCHIP

Update x3: There's a mini-discussion in the comments about how of the 3-4 sites that have been doing state-by-state tracking since Oct. 1, the only ones left seem to be myself and Enroll Maven...and even Enroll Maven has been somewhat AWOL for the past few weeks.

Within the past hour or so, they've finally updated their own tally to...757,000 enrollments. They updated California to 400K, but otherwise they're still sorely out of date--they still have New York listed at 95K (they're actually up to 156K) and so forth. Anyway, I guess they're still in the running, but they're lagging behind (and their site is still poorly laid out, doesn't include Medicaid at all, and doesn't have any historical data or visual elements).

Anyway, aside from the 750K additional "unspecified" enrollments on the Federal exchange that were announced yesterday, they're missing almost 300,000 enrollments from the state exchanges that have been added since their last updates.

I also wanted to go on the record with my prediction for the final private enrollment tally projection for the "real" 1/1/14 coverage deadline of midnight tonight: 1.95 - 2.0 million.

That's obviously not a particularly bold prediction given that we're already at around 1.8 million, but I figured I should go on the record with it anyway for the heck of it.

ArcticStones already predicted 2.25 million by New Year's; I'm actually going to overshoot him and call it 2.3 - 2.35 million by then.

Speaking of ArcticStones, I just wanted to give him yet another shout-out; there've been a dozen or so folks here at dKos and elsewhere who have been helping me out by providing updates for one state or another, but AS has been absolutely obsessive, sending heads' ups on a half-dozen states at a time some days. He's also gone above and beyond, by helping me contact a few reporters for clarifications and even contacting the CBO/HHS to try and resolve the Mystery of the 7 Million Projection (short answer: the CBO did issue the "7M" projection, but no one seems to have a clue what the origin of the state-by-state projection breakdown is aside from an AP article from October 16).

Anyway, ArcticStones is the real hero of this project; I'm just plugging in the numbers for the most part.

In addition to AS, other noteworthy assistants include ybruti (California/Medicaid specialist), rugbymom, timmyc, rsmpdx, dadadata and Rolyboy6. I hope you're all able to continue to assist right up until March 31st, and if anyone else wants to help out as well, feel free to email me at cgaba (at) brainwrap (dot) com.

Otherwise, a very Merry Christmas (or Happy Holidays, or Season's Greetings, or whatever the heck you prefer) to everyone. Being Jewish, tonight is just another night for me, so I'll try and squeeze in one final update later on tonight at ACASignups.net.

ALSO, AN IMPORTANT NOTICE FOR THOSE OF YOU IN CALIFORNIA:

Good evening! If you started an application December 23, but haven't completed it, you now have until Friday, December 27 at 8pm to finish for coverage starting on January 1. However, you cannot complete your application online as part of this extension. Instead, please call our service center at 1-800-300-1506, or work with a Certified Enrollment Counselor or Agent - you can find one at this link. Happy Holidays, and get covered!