A bunch of people have sent me this link to the latest Gallop poll, which is certainly welcome news but isn't exactly unexpected:
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The uninsured rate among adults aged 18 and older in the states that have chosen to expand Medicaid and set up their own exchanges in the health insurance marketplace has declined significantly more this year than in the remaining states that have not done so. The uninsured rate, on average, declined 2.5 percentage points in the 21 states (plus the District of Columbia) that have implemented both of these measures, compared with a 0.8-point drop across the 29 states that have taken only one or neither of these actions.
This is actually pretty impressive; NY had been averaging around 4,200/day up until yesterday, when they hit 949,428, so this means they racked up another 11,334 in the final day (around 5,600 QHPs and 5,700 Medicaid):
OK, this doesn't really change the numbers beyond a couple hundred, but it's encouragingto see that my "15% in Non-Expansion States" rule of thumb for estimating the number of people who fall into the "woodworker" category seems to be pretty accurate, at least in Indiana:
Even without expanding eligibility for Indiana Medicaid, the program had enrolled 40,577 more Hoosiers as of March than it had in the same month last year.
More than 15,000 of that year-over-year increase occurred in March alone this year, as a flood of people here and nationally sought coverage before Obamacare would hit them with a tax for going uninsured.
If you take a look at the Medicaid Spreadsheet, you'll see that I currently have the "woodworker" tally for Indiana at 40,951...only 374 more than the number reported above.
That 40,951 is 15% of the combined total number of new Medicaid enrollments for Indiana from both the HC.gov website as well as through traditional state Medicaid agency offices (273,005).
I said I'd keep the poll for the "woodworker" terminologyopen until tonight, but until I decide what to do about it I'll be continuing to use that term for consistency.
This article from Kaiser Health News brings solid numbers for Colorado, but also gives other good info about the Medicaid situation. For instance, they give a simple explanation of where the term comes from...
Hundreds of thousands of those people were already eligible and could have signed up even before the Affordable Care Act made it much more generous.
They came “out of the woodwork” to get enrolled, analysts say, thanks to the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate and publicity around its new marketplaces.
...then they give the exact number in Colorado...though only through the end of February...
Oh for the love of...(sigh) Look, I'm all for letting as many people as possible enroll in healthcare coverage, but even I admit that I'm getting awfully tired of having to change the final, FINAL deadline dates.
The Hawaii Health Connector has extended the initial grace period— which would have ended on Tuesday — given to individuals in need of extra time completing the enrollment application process for health insurance by a couple of weeks to April 30.
Let's just hope they resolve their Heartbleed issue.
Leigh McGivern of coOportunity Health has helpfully provided their final (well, near-final...through 4/14) tallies for both on- and off-exchange enrollments. The exchange-based numbers aren't really relevant to me since those are reported by HHS, but the off-exchange QHPs and ESI's are vital:
IOWA
Individual/Family members: 18,358 (10,809 on exchange/7,549 off exchange)
Small group members: 7,848
Large group members: 274
NEBRASKA
Individual/Family members: 30,668 (20,308 on exchange/10,360 off exchange)
Small group members: 11,292
Large group members: 2,774
TOTAL ON EXCHANGE IOWA AND NEBRASKA (individuals/families): 31,117
TOTAL OFF EXCHANGE IOWA AND NEBRASKA (individuals/families): 17,909
TOTAL BUSINESS (employees and dependents) IOWA AND NEBRASKA: 22,188
TOTAL BOTH STATES ON AND OFF EXCHANGE (individuals/families/businesses): 71,214
This doesn't change the actual total number of Rhode Island's Medicaid expansion numbers, but it does specify the ratio between "strict expansion" and the "woodworker" enrollees...66% to 34%. Interestingly, this is virtually identical to the Washington State ratio (again, 67% to 33%).
This isn't enough to apply to the other expansion states yet, but if it does prove to be the case, that should be helpful in figuring out how accurate my current estimates are. I currently have "strict expansion" at roughly 3.7 million, while "woodworkers" are at 2.05 million. A strict 67/33 ratio would have the "woodworker" number at around 1.82 million...except that the non-expansion states also have some woodworkers as well, which should account for the additional 230K or so.
Figures obtained from the Chafee administration by WPRI.com show that out of the 64,590 Rhode Islanders who signed up for Medicaid from October through March using the state’s new HealthSource RI marketplace, 34% were eligible before the new law expanded the rules for who could sign up.
