With all that in mind, if the Week 10 HC.gov Snapshot comes in anywhere under 200,000 today, I'll be dropping my final estimate to a range between 13.8 - 14.2 million.
Well, the Week 10 Snapshot was just released, and sure enough, it was pretty anemic:
Yeah, that's not great. In fact, this is almost identical to the number of new enrollees during Christmas Week (just over 74,000), making this the second lowest week of the Period.
As I noted last week, I'm expecting today's HC.gov Week 10 Snapshot Report to announce around 130,000 additional QHP selections between 1/03/16 - 1/09/16, which would bring the HC.gov total up around 8.74 million. This would also likely bring the national total up to around 11.55 million.
While those numbers wouldn't be bad, they would also make it very likely that the final 3 weeks are going to be weaker than I expected. Back on December 28th, I noted the following:
As of today [last week], we should be appx. 1.9 million ahead of last year...but as you note, the question now is whether it will continue to stay ahead of last year *proportionately*.
11.2M vs. 9.3M = appx. 20% ahead. My 14.7M projection assumes 25% growth over 11.7M. It's that 5% difference I'm concerned about (again, see the final week).
A subcommittee of a state task force recommended Monday continuing with a state-run health insurance exchange like MNsure for now, rather than transferring Minnesotans to the national exchange called HealthCare.gov
Moving to the federal website would be costly and wouldn't work with the state's MinnesotaCare insurance program, said a report endorsed by the 11-person subcommittee of the state task force on health care finance.
Plus, by moving to HealthCare.gov, the state would lose control over its network of health insurance navigators that help people enroll in coverage, according to the report.
Last week, the Rhode Island exchange reported a total of 34,627 QHP selections--paid and unpaid, as they're always careful to note.
The breakdown at the time was:
30,165 renewed/re-enrolled from 2015
4,462 newly-added for 2016
They also noted that:
27,124 of the 34,627 individuals are enrolled in 2016 coverage through HSRI, and have paid their first month’s premium.
Given that the thru-date was after New Year's, it was inevitable that another chunk of those who selected QHPs would be dropped soon...and sure enough, HealthSourceRI has done so in this week's report:
INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY ENROLLMENT • As of January 9, 2016:
About 1.4 million households that got financial help for health insurance under President Barack Obama's law failed to properly account for it on their tax returns last year, putting their subsidies at risk if they want to keep coverage.
...IRS said the more than 1.4 million households that have failed to properly account for their 2014 tax credits include:
I guess the question here is just how much verification the HHS Dept. and/or the assorted state-based exchanges are doing of these claims. In cases like getting married/divorced, giving birth, becoming a citizen or getting out of jail, I would imagine the verification should be pretty easy. However, the "Tax Penalty Ignorance" exception was pretty much based on an honors system, and I don't know how easy/difficult it is for the feds to "verify" that your income has increased/decreased substantially...at least, not until you file your taxes the following year, which could be up to a year after the claim is made.
...So, what's the solution to this, assuming the problem is widespread? Well, I can think of some obvious tweaks to the rules, almost all of which involve simply reducing grace periods:
OK, there's a lot of confusion (including some by myself) about the whole "saving money" issue with regard to Matt Bevin shutting down Kentucky's kynect exchange. I've discussed it with Louise Norris, and I think the situation is as follows:
Currently, kynect's $28 million annual budget is covered by a 1% fee charged to all premiums for everyone on individual policies (on or off exchange), small group policies and large group policies.
Kentucky has roughly 4.4 million people. Of these, around 9% are still uninsured, 27% are on Medicaid (much of this thanks to ACA expansion!) and at least 18% are on Medicare (800K as of 2012, more today). That means that no more than 46% of the state's population is currently paying this 1% fee; it's likely around 40% doing so.
In other words, right now, as far as I can tell, around 1.8 million Kentuckians are paying roughly $16 per year to pay for Kynect.
FRANKFORT, Ky. - Following through on a campaign pledge, Gov. Matt Bevin has notified federal authorities he plans to dismantle kynect, Kentucky's health insurance exchange created as part of the Affordable Care Act.
In a Dec. 30 letter to Sylvia Burwell, secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Bevin said he plans to wind down the state health exchange and transition Kentuckians to the federal site, healthcare.gov, to shop for insurance under the law also known as Obamacare.
Louisiana Gov.-elect John Bel Edwards has set an ambitious timeline for a Medicaid expansion, saying he wants to have government-funded health insurance cards in thousands more people's hands by July 1.
...that's assuming the Republican-led Legislature doesn't try to throw up any roadblocks seeking to slow down an expansion effort.
Edwards, a Democrat who takes office Monday, said he would issue an executive order "within 24 hours from being sworn in" that starts the work required to expand Medicaid as allowed under the federal healthcare law. Health coverage for the people who would be eligible for the insurance under the expansion, he said, would begin July 1.
...The incoming health secretary estimated that about 300,000 people, mainly the working poor, would be enrolled for Medicaid under an expansion.
Just a quick reminder: This Friday, January 15th, is the deadline for people to sign up for healthcare coverage that starts on February 1st in most states:
The deadline for February coverage is Friday, January 15th in 46 states & DC.
The deadline for February coverage is Saturday, January 23rd in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Washington State.
The FINAL deadline, for coverage starting in March in all states (& DC) is Sunday, January 31st.
Exceptions: Aside from the normal "off-season" Special Enrollment Period (SEP) for getting married, giving birth, etc., it's important to note that anyone who lost their coverage due to one of the dozen Co-Ops which shut down in December still has until March 1st to enroll (h/t to Amy Lotven for the reminder):
