As of the end of the third open enrollment under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), 12.7 million people had signed up for coverage in the health insurance marketplaces, up from 11.7 million last year and 8.0 million in 2014.
Actual enrollment will end up somewhat lower than this because some people will not pay their premiums or will have their coverage terminated due to inconsistencies on their applications, and there is typically additional attrition as the year progresses (e.g., as some enrollees get jobs with health benefits). For example, in 2015 paid enrollees totaled 10.2 million as of end of March and 9.3 million as of the end of September. If a similar pattern holds, actual enrollment should end 2016 over 10 million, which was the target established by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). (There are reasons to believe that attrition may be lower this year, including the fact that terminations occurring during open enrollment have already been subtracted from official signup figures, which was not the case previously.)
While enrollment is in line with the HHS target announced in advance of this year’s open enrollment, it is short of earlier projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which became an implicit yardstick for judging the law. In March 2015, CBO projected average monthly marketplace enrollment of 21 million in calendar year 2016, though recently lowered that forecast to 13 million.
In this analysis, we look at why enrollment may be lower than projected by CBO and discuss the potential for future enrollment growth.
In a phone call, [Sen. Sanders's policy director Warren] Gunnels explained the $1.1 trillion gap. It comes down to five factors:
...Sanders assumes $324 billion more per year in prescription drug savings than Thorpe does. Thorpe argues that this is wildly implausible. "In 2014 private health plans paid a TOTAL of $132 billion on prescription drugs and nationally we spent $305 billion," he writes in an email. "With their savings drug spending nationally would be negative." (Emphasis mine.) The Sanders camp revised the number down to $241 billion when I pointed this out.
...When I pointed out that the yearly savings numbers they were presenting on prescription drugs were literally impossible, the Sanders camp revised the number to $241 billion — huge and arguably implausible but not larger than total annual spending on prescription drugs.
6/10/16: REPOSTED FROM THE ARCHIVES AS A REMINDER.
Yes, this is off topic. No, I don't care tonight.
Yes, the entire Republican debate was a revolting, disgusting, putrid embarrassment from start to finish (with the odd exception of the moderators from FOX News, who actually did a great job).
However, forget about the discussion of Donald Trump's penis size which opened the evening (no, I'm not making that up, and no, it's not a metaphor).
Just how grim the state’s budget situation has become was apparent Wednesday morning as the state House of Representatives discussed and ultimately agreed to a bill that would cut 111,000 Oklahomans, most of them women, from Medicaid.
While giving his big ACA speech in Milwaukee, Wisconsin a little while ago, President Obama mentioned a few key data points: 129 million people with pre-existing conditions being protected, 140 million people who were already insured having free preventative care added, etc etc.
He also dropped one really big new number: 20 million.
That's the net increase in the number of Americans who the HHS Dept. of the United States says have gained coverage (either via ACA exchange policies, Medicaid expansion or the ACA's provision requiring policies to allow young adults between 19 - 26 years old to say on their parents plans).
Andy Slavitt, acting administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid, just announced that CMS has authorized expanding Medicaid to 15,000 children and pregnant women in Flint, Michigan, as well as expanding the services provided to 30,000 current Medicaid enrollees. Here's the full press release (emphasis mine):
HHS Approves Major Medicaid Expansion for Flint
FLINT, Mich. – Today, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has approved the State of Michigan’s 1115 demonstration to extend Medicaid coverage and services to Flint residents impacted by the lead exposure. In recognition of the public health crisis in Flint, it is a top priority for the Administration and for the Department to ensure that all children and pregnant women exposed to lead in their water in Flint have access to the services they need. Approximately 15,000 additional children and pregnant women will be eligible for Medicaid coverage and 30,000 current Medicaid beneficiaries in the area will be eligible for expanded services under this new waiver agreement.
“Expanding Medicaid coverage to tens of thousands of expectant mothers and youth means the most vulnerable citizens served by the Flint water supply can now be connected to a wide range of needed health and developmental services, including lead-blood level monitoring and behavioral health services,” said HHS Secretary Sylvia M. Burwell.
Michigan will expand Medicaid coverage to children up to age 21 and pregnant women who were served by the Flint water system from April 2014 up to a date specified by the Governor, and who have incomes up to 400 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL). Michigan will also set up a state program allowing pregnant women and children up to age 21 who were served by the Flint water system and individuals with incomes above 400 percent of FPL to purchase unsubsidized coverage. This comprehensive health and developmental coverage includes lead-blood level monitoring and behavioral health services, among other services.
So, yesterday evening, Donald Trump finally released his "terrific" healthcare plan to replace the ACA. I started to write up a full deconstruction of it, point by point...
Since March of 2010, the American people have had to suffer under the incredible economic burden of the Affordable Care Act—Obamacare.
This legislation, passed by totally partisan votes in the House and Senate and signed into law by the most divisive and partisan President in American history...
So here it is...Super Tuesday. Unless the GOP base suddenly decides that they don't want a xenophobic, misogynistic, hate-mongering, con-artist moron to be their standard-bearer, it's looking very likely that by the time midnight rolls around, Donald Drumpf will indeed be almost unstoppable as the Republican Presidential Nominee for 2016.
Which means, aside from the GOP establishment being on collective suicide watch, Mr. Drumpf will have to think about who his running mate will be for the general election.
