Assuming 265,000 people enroll in exchange policies by the end of January, I estimate around 175,000 of them would be forced off of their private policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal, plus another 692,000 enrolled in the ACA Medicaid expansion program, for a total of over 865,000 Ohioans kicked to the curb.
As for the individual market, my standard methodology applies:
Minnesota is a different story. They started out Open Enrollment with a bang, racking up enrollees at up to 12x last year's pace...but that was mainly due to their unique "enrollment cap" policy this year. Once the caps were filled and current enrollees were all squared away, new enrollments appear to have dropped off dramatically. They're now dead last percent-of-target wise (again, I can't include NY or VT here since neither has enough data available).
It feels a little odd to be alternating estimates about how many people could lose their coverage in each state with the number signing up for it at the same time, but that's where we are: Remember, there's still 6 more days for people to enroll for 2017 coverage starting in February, and 16 days after that to sign up for coverage starting in March.
Connect for Health Colorado Reports Increase in Healthcare Plan Selections for 2017 Coverage
DENVER — More than 158,000 Coloradans selected healthcare coverage for 2017 through the state health insurance Marketplace through Sunday, January 8, a rate 18 percent ahead of signups one year ago, according to new data released today by Connect for Health Colorado®.
As I noted when I crunched the numbers for Texas, it's actually easier to figure out how many people would lose coverage if the ACA is repealed in non-expansion states because you can't rip away healthcare coverage from someone who you never provided it to in the first place.
The typical agreement a QHP issuer enters into if selling on the FFM requires them to keep the policy in force for the entire calendar year. [This exit clause] gives them option to term the policy abruptly if the Courts rule, or a Trump administration decides, that it won't pay CSR offset payments to carriers. Because this won't hit the Supreme Court until late 17 or early 18, I think this is as much about assuaging carriers fears of a Trump admin trying to destroy the marketplaces as anything else.
Illinois is pretty straightforward. Assuming 400,000 people enroll in exchange policies by the end of January (a modest 3% increase over last year), I estimate around 275,000 of them would be forced off of their private policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal, plus the 643,000 enrolled in Medicaid expansion as of June 2016, for a total of just over 918,000 Illinoisians kicked to the curb.
As for the individual market, my standard methodology applies:
OK, it's really important to note that a) this is a very simplified rendering of the true situation and b) this only applies to two populations: The individual market (around 20 million people) and the medicaid expansion population (around 14 million, plus another 2.6 million being denied thanks to 19 states refusing to expand it). In other words, it has nothing to do with the large group market, small group market, Medicare, the VA/TriCare, federal/state/local public employees and so on. This chart only applies to around 37 million people in the U.S. Got it?
Having said that, what I've tried to do is to provide a visual representation of, among that population, who the ACA is working well for, who it isn't working so well for, and who can legitimately complain about feeling screwed by it:
Oops. Last week I reported that Access Health CT appeared to state that they had a total of 114,421 QHP selections during the current open enrollment period. The wording was slightly squirrelly ("currently active for 2016 and/or 2017"), especially since I also knew there were around 12,000 existing enrollees who still hadn't chosen a new policy...but an earlier update had given the number as "around 113,000" in a seemingly less-confusing way, so I assumed that all 114,421 applied to 2017.
