Minnesota: Preliminary avg. unsubsidized 2024 #ACA rate change: +5.1%

via the Minnesota Commerce Dept:

Individual Market PROPOSED Average Rate Changes

The summary table below provides an overview of the proposed average rate changes from 2023 in the individual health insurance market, as reported by the insurers. 

These rate changes do not reflect the impact of federal premium tax credits that are available to eligible Minnesotans who purchase their coverage through MNsure.

It is important to note these are the initial rates proposed by the insurers and filed with the Departments. Rates are subject to review and approval by the Departments and the final approved rates may vary from these proposed rates for many reasons. 

Additionally, the actual rate change a consumer will experience in 2024 can vary from the average – with factors such as specific plan, geographic rating area, age, and federal premium tax credits playing a major role. 

Small Group Market Proposed Average Rate Changes

The summary table below provides an overview of the proposed average rate changes from 2023 in the small group health insurance market, as reported by the insurers. 

It is important to note these are the initial rates proposed by the insurers and filed with the Departments. Rates are subject to review and approval by the Departments and the final approved rates may vary from these proposed rates for many reasons.

Additionally, the actual rate change a consumer will experience in 2024 can vary from the average – with factors such as specific plan, geographic rating area, age, and renewal date playing a major role.

The most noteworthy item in Minnesota for 2024 is that PreferredOne, which already dropped off the state's small group market in 2023, appears to be dropping out of the individual market as well. PreferredOne had only offered off-exchange plans for the past several years anyway.

Unfortunately, as usual, Minnesota's SERFF rate filing database doesn't seem to include any actual enrollment information, so I can't run a proper weighted average rate change for the small group market at all (the unweighted average increase is 8.8%). For the individual market, I'm basing the weighted 5.1% average increase on on-exchange enrollment only as of March 2023. I'm operating on the assumption that perhaps 90% of Minnesota's QHP enrollment is on-exchange these days, and that the other 10% (perhaps 13,000 people?) breaks out in a roughly similar ratio.