Monthly Update: County-level #COVID19 vaccination levels by 2020 Partisan Lean

Mon, 04/25/2022 - 8:53am

Methodology reminders:

I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).

I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census including all ages (i.e., it includes kids under 12).

For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
- For Vermont , Virginia and West Virginia, I'm using data from the COVID Act Now Risk & Vaccine Tracker database

- For California, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Minnesota and Texas, I'm using their COVID vaccine dashboards set up by the state health departments.
- For Massachusetts, I use CDC data for most counties but the official Massachusetts Health Dept. weekly data report for Barnstable, Dukes & Nantucket counties, which the CDC only has partial data for.

The 5 major U.S. territories don't vote for President in the general election, preventing me from displaying them in the main graph, but I have them listed down the right side.

Alaska's 2020 election results are estimated thanks to an updated analysis by RRH Elections (all other states +DC have been using 2020 county-level election data all along).

BY POPULAR REQUEST, here's an updated Google Spreadsheet with all the relevant data.

There are several counties which have supposedly surpassed 100% vaccination rates; obviously that's impossible, and is due to discrepancies in either the vaccination data or actual population counts. In addition, people have moved, died, etc. since the 2020 Census was locked in as of April 2020. With that in mind, I've started setting the maximum vaccination rate for any county at 98%.

With all this in mind, here's what things looked like as of April 24th, 2022:

Amazingly, while the correlation (R^2) has pretty much plateaued over the past few months...

...the slope angle has continued to increase, albeit at a slower rate than it did after the 5-11 yr old vaccination surge last December:

There are now 20 Counties where over 90% of their populations have received their 2nd shot, with ~1.06 million residents, including:
- Bristol Bay, AK (pop. 844)
- Apache County, AZ (pop. 66,021)
- Santa Cruz County, AZ (pop. 47,669)
  - (Note: there's a serious discrepancy between the official CDC vaxx rate & the AZ Health Dept. for both Apache & Santa Cruz)
- Imperial County, CA (pop. 179,702)
- San Juan County, CO (pop. 705)
- Kalawao County, HI (pop. 82)
- West Feliciana Parish, LA (pop. 15,310)
- Dukes County, MA (pop. 20,600)
- Nantucket County, MA (pop. 14,255)
- Big Horn County, MT (pop. 13,124)
- Rosebud County, MT (pop. 8,329)
- Hudspeth County, TX (pop. 2,912)
- Maverick County, TX (pop. 57,887)
- Presidio County, TX (pop. 6,131)
- Starr County, TX (pop. 65,920)
- Webb County, TX (pop. 267,114)
- Charles City, VA (pop. 6,773)
- Fairfax City, VA (pop. 24,146)
- Norfolk City, VA (pop. 238,005)
- Teton County, WY (pop. 21,073)

There are now 66 Counties where over 80% of their total populations have received their 2nd shot, with ~22.7 million residents.

There are now 250 Counties with 98.5 million residents where over 70% of the total populations have received their 2nd shot.
- 125 of these counties have more than 100,000 residents.

There are 49 counties with more than 1 million residents. Of those, the highest-vaxxed is Montgomery County, MD (86.0% vaxxed) while the lowest-vaxxed is Wayne County, MI (home of Detroit), which has only vaccinated 52.9% of its population.

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