Weekly Update: U.S. #COVID19 vaccination levels by County & Partisan Lean

Methodology reminders:

• I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
  • (data for 3rd/booster shots aren't available at the county level in most states yet)

• I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).

• For most states + DC I use the daily data from the Centers for Disease Control, but there are some where the CDC is either missing county-level data entirely or where the CDC data is less than 90% complete at the county level. Therefore:
  • For Vermont, Virginia and West Virginia, I'm using data from the COVID Act Now Risk & Vaccine Tracker database
    • NOTE: I've started using the official state health department dashboard for Virginia this week due to some weirdness in the COVID Act Now data. Unfortunately the VA Health Dept. dashboard doesn't allow you to export, view or download all 95 counties/city-counties at once, making this a tedious effort, so I'm not sure how I'll deal with it going forward.

• • For Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota and Texas, I'm using their COVID vaccine dashboards set up by the state health departments.
  • For California, I'm using the CDC data for most counties and the state health dept. dashboard data for the 8 small counties which the CDC isn't allowed to post data for.
  • For Massachusetts, I'm using the CDC data for most counties but am now using the official Massachusetts Health Dept. weekly data report for Barnstable, Dukes & Nantucket counties, which the CDC only has partial data for.

• The 5 major U.S. territories don't vote for President in the general election, preventing me from displaying them in the main graph, but I have them listed down the right side.

• Alaska's 2020 election results are estimated thanks to an updated analysis by RRH Elections (all other states +DC have been using 2020 county-level election data all along).

• BY POPULAR REQUEST, here's an updated Google Spreadsheet with all the relevant data.

• IMPORTANT: There are now several counties which have supposedly surpassed 100% vaccination rates; obviously that's impossible, and is due to discrepancies in either the vaccination data or actual population counts. In addition, people have moved, died, etc. since the 2020 Census was locked in as of April 2020. With that in mind, I've started setting the maximum vaccination rate for any county at 98% with one exception: Kalawao County, Hawaii, which only has 82 residents & is a special case.

With all this in mind, here's what things looked like as of January 16th, 2022:

The most noteworthy thing this week is that the R-squared for this graph has now moved over the 0.5 threshold, and the slope angle has started to increase again as well.

As I predicted back in mid-November, the most obvious reason for this is that 5 - 11 year-olds started receiving their 2nd Pfizer shot around Thanksgiving. The parents who were most likely to have gotten vaccinated themselves earlier this year are pretty clearly the ones most likely to get their children vaccinated, and the parents least likely to get vaccinated are, sadly, also those least likely to vaccinate their children either:

Other things especially worth noting:

• 9 Counties with over 90% of their populations having received their 2nd shot have ~166,000 residents, including the above plus:
  • Bristol Bay, AK (pop. 844)
  • Apache County, AZ (pop. 66,021)
  • Santa Cruz County, AZ (pop. 47,669)
    • (Note: there's a serious discrepancy between the official CDC vaxx rate & the AZ Health Dept. for both Apache & Santa Cruz)
  • Kalawao County, HI (pop. 82)
  • Dukes County, MA (pop. 20,600)
  • Nantucket County, MA (pop. 14,255)
  • Hudspeth County, TX (pop. 2,912)
  • Presidio County, TX (pop. 6,131)
  • Charles City, VA (pop. 6,773)

• 37 Counties with over 80% of their total populations having received their 2nd shot have ~9.16 million residents, including the above plus:
  • Haines County, AK (pop. 2080)
  • Imperial County, CA (pop. 179,702)
  • Marin County, CA (pop. 262,321)
  • Mono County, CA (pop. 13,195)
  • San Francisco County, CA (pop. 873,965)
  • Santa Clara County, CA (pop. 1,936,259)
  • Pitkin County, CO (pop. 17,358)
  • San Juan County, CO (pop. 705)
  • San Miguel County, CO (pop. 8,072)
  • Summit County, CO (pop. 31,055)
  • Miami-Dade County, FL (pop. 2,701,767)**
    • I find Miami-Dade's supposed vaccination rate highly suspicious based on their case rate since June, but whatever.
  • West Feliciana County, LA (pop. 15,310)
  • Cumberland County, ME (pop. 303,069)
  • Howard County, MD (pop. 332,317)
  • Montgomery County, MD (pop. 1,062,061)
  • Big Horn County, MT (pop. 13,124)
  • Glacier County, MT (pop. 13,778)
  • Rosebud County, MT (pop. 8,329)
  • Los Alamos County, NM (pop. 19,419)
  • Dimmit County, TX (pop. 8,615)
  • Maverick County, TX (pop. 57,887)
  • Webb County, TX (pop. 267,114)
  • Summit County, UT (pop. 42,357)
  • Grand Isle County, VT (pop. 7,293)
  • Fairfax City VA (pop. 24,146)
  • Menominee County, WI (pop. 4,255)
  • Teton County, WY (pop. 23,331)

• 155 Counties with 55.95 million residents have over 70% of their total populations having received their 2nd shot.
  • 75 of these counties have more than 100,000 residents.

• At the opposite end, there's 26 counties which have vaccinated less than 25% of their total populations, with ~277,000 residents:
  • Winston County, AL (pop. 23,540)
  • Crowley County, CO (pop. 5,922)
  • Charlton County, GA (pop. 12,518)
  • Chattahoochee County, GA (pop. 9,565)
  • Long County, GA (pop. 16,168)
  • LaGrange County, IN (pop. 40,446)
  • Cameron County, LA (pop. 5,617)
  • Newton County, MO (pop. 58,648)
  • Garfield County, MT (pop. 1,173)
  • McCone County, MT (pop. 1,729)
  • Powder River County, MT (pop. 1,694)
  • Arthur County, NE (pop. 434)
  • Grant County, NE (pop. 611)
  • Logan County, NE (pop. 716)
  • McPherson County, NE (pop. 399)
  • Sioux County, NE (pop. 1,135)
  • Storey County, NV (pop. 4,104)
  • Billings County, ND (pop. 945)
  • Grant County, ND (pop. 2,301)
  • McKenzie County, ND (pop. 14,704)
  • Slope County, ND (pop. 706)
  • Holmes County, OH (pop. 44,223)
  • Harding County, SD (pop. 1,311)
  • Moore County, TN (pop. 6,461)
  • Gaines County, TX (pop. 21,598)
  • King County, TX (pop. 265)

• There's 21 counties with more than 100,000 residents which have vaccinated less than 40% of their total populations:
  • Etowah County, AL (pop. 103436)
  • Lee County, AL (pop. 174241)
  • Limestone County, AL (pop. 103570)
  • Shelby County, AL (pop. 223024)
  • Tuscaloosa County, AL (pop. 227036)
  • Matanuska-Susitna, AK (pop. 107081)
  • Mohave County, AZ (pop. 213267)
  • Bartow County, GA (pop. 108,901)
  • Carroll County, GA (pop. 119,148)
  • Lowndes County, GA (pop. 118,251)
  • Muscogee County, GA (pop. 206,922)
  • Paulding County, GA (pop. 168,661)
  • Canyon County, ID (pop. 231,105)
  • Kootenai County, ID (pop. 171,362)
  • Warren County, KY (pop. 134,554)
  • Calcasieu County, LA (pop. 216,785)
  • Livingston County, LA (pop. 142,282)
  • Harnett County, NC (pop. 133,568)
  • Anderson County, SC (pop. 203,718)
  • Bradley County, TN (pop. 108,620)
  • Bell County, TX (pop. 370,647)

• There are 49 counties with more than 1 million residents. Of those, the highest-vaxxed is Montgomery County, MD (84.0% vaxxed) while the lowest-vaxxed is Wayne County, MI (home of Detroit), which has only vaccinated 50.1% of its population.