Rhode island: 34.6K QHPs, 96% of my OE3 projection

Rhode Island, which already had one of the later deadlines in the first place, just bumped it out even later...all the way out through December 29th. However, having such a small population, Rhode Island's latest update still doesn't move the needle that much:

INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY ENROLLMENT As of January 2, 2016:

• 34,627 individuals are enrolled in 2016 coverage through HSRI, paid and unpaid.
• Nearly all of these individuals are current HSRI enrollees that have been autorenewed into a 2016 plan.
• 4,462 of the 34,627 individuals have selected a plan for 2016 coverage, and are new to HSRI this year or returning after being enrolled with HSRI at some point during a prior year.
• 27,124 of the 34,627 individuals are enrolled in 2016 coverage through HSRI, and have paid their first month’s premium.

SHOP ENROLLMENT As of January 2, 2016:

• Small employer accounts created: 2,205
• Small employer applications completed: 779
• SHOP paid enrollment could not be updated this week due to a system limitation; the values below represent activity as of December 26, 2015.
• Small employer enrollment (paid): 535
• These employers represent 3,824 covered lives
• 84% of small employers are enrolled in the Full Choice Model.
• 90% SHOP renewal rate (2015 to date).

Aside from HealthCare.Gov itself, Rhode Island is the only state exchange to issue regular, weekly reports, making it easy to see the trend:

• Week 1: 30,374 renewals + 306 new = 30,680 total
• Week 2: 30,158 renewals + 585 new = 30,743 total
• Week 3: 30,092 renewals + 920 new = 31,012 total
• Week 4: 30,075 renewals + 1,163 new = 31,238 total
• Week 5: 29,908 renewals + 1,592 new = 31,500 total
• Week 6: 29,792 renewals + 2,189 new = 31,981 total
• Week 7: 29,768 renewals + 3,072 new = 32,840 total
• Week 8: 30,049 renewals + 3,847 new = 33,896 total
• Week 9: 30,165 renewals + 4,462 new = 34,627 total

This is kind of interesting for two reasons. First, as you can see, the renewal number dropped each week for the first 7 weeks straight...because the exchange auto-renewed nearly all currently effectuated enrollees up front, then left it up to those individuals to "opt-out" if they wished (think "Columbia CD Club" for the older folks among us).

This resulted in a net loss of 606 renewals through Week 7...or 2.0% of all current enrollees, which is still an excellent retention rate.

However, something even more interesting happend in Weeks 8 & 9: As far as I can tell, 297 of those 606 people actively jumped back in after all, selecting a different (I presume) plan during what they thought was the final chance to do so for January coverage (the 12/29 extension wasn't announced until the original deadline, 12/23).

Meanwhile, after averaging just 439 new enrollees per week for the first 7 weeks, RI averaged 753 for each of the past two weeks.

My personal target for Rhode Island during OE3 is 36,000, which means they've reached 96.2% so far, and only need 1,373 more over the remaining 4 weeks to hit 100%. That's just 343 people per week, which should be doable.