May CMS Medicaid Report: Net increase of 12.8M (actually 13.8M)

The CMS Dept. has quietly released their latest monthly Medicaid/CHIP enrollment report through the end of May...which happens to line up almost perfectly with what I was expecting:

• Over 71.6 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP in May 2015. This enrollment count is point-in-time (on the last day of the month) and includes all enrollees in the Medicaid and CHIP programs who are receiving a comprehensive benefit package.
• 509,082 additional people were enrolled in May 2015 as compared to April 2015 in the 51 states that reported comparable May and April 2015 data.
• Looking at the additional enrollment since October 2013 when the initial Marketplace open enrollment period began, among the 49 states reporting both May 2015 enrollment data and data from July-September of 2013, more than 12.8 million additional individuals are enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP as of May 2015, more than a 22 percent increase over the average monthly enrollment for July through September of 2013. (Connecticut and Maine are not included in this count.)

But wait, you're saying; according to The Graph, you estimated the net increase as of the end of May as 13.8 million, a million more than CMS is reporting!

Yes, that's true...but don't forget this part:

• These enrollment counts are in addition to the enrollment increases from the nearly 950,000 individuals who gained coverage as a result of the Affordable Care Act before open enrollment began. Seven states implemented an “early option” to expand Medicaid coverage to adults

Naturally, there's also a massive Expansion vs. Non-Expansion divide as well:

• Among states that had implemented the Medicaid expansion and were covering newly eligible adults in May 2015, Medicaid and CHIP enrollment rose by approximately 29.2 percent compared to the July-September 2013 baseline period, while states that have not, to date, expanded Medicaid reported an increase of approximately 9.5 percent over the same period.

The 9.5% Medicaid/CHIP increase in NON-expansion states is due to the "woodworker" effect (which also accounts for some portion of the expansion states as well).

Of course, The Graph itself doesn't stop at the end of May. My own projections actually have the current net gain up to around 14.5 million as of the end of July (or 13.5 million if you don't include the "bulk transfers").

(I should also note that I somehow missed the April Medicaid report completely last month, but there's a link to it below as well)