So, what's still missing?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 4:05pm

With today's confirmation of 6.75 million QHPs via HC.gov (thru 1/09) and the almost-certain-to-be-close 90K figure from Massachusetts (through yesterday), the confirmed (or virtually confirmed) QHP total nationally is now up to over 7.82 million. However, my estimate is now up to 9.34 million, or around 1.52 million higher.

I've done this before, but this seems like a good point to again review where the gap between the numbers is:

  • California Renewals of 2014 Enrollees: Theoretically as high as 1.12 million, but I estimate it'll be around 960K...if CoveredCA ever actually gives that number out.
  • New York Renewals of 2014 Enrollees: Theoretically as high as 379K, but I estimate it'll be around 320K (again, if they ever release the renewal data)

Those two alone make up 84% of the "missing" 2015 QHP enrollments; now you understand why I'm so irritated.

As for the remaining 240,000 or so, that should be found in the following:

  • HC.gov (37 states): New enrollments from the past 5 days
  • CA: New enrollments from the past 2 days
  • CO: New enrollments from the past 13 days
  • CT: New enrollments from the past 29 days
  • DC: New enrollments from the past 23 days
  • HI: All Autorenewals plus New enrollments from the past 29 days
  • ID: New enrollments from the past 13 days
  • KY: New enrollments from the past 7 days
  • MD: New enrollments from the past 2 days
  • MA: Confirmed enrollments since Jan. 7th (86K confirmed, 4,700 estimated)
  • MN: New enrollments from the past 7 days
  • NY: New enrollments from the past 24 days
  • RI: New enrollments from the past 10 days
  • VT: New enrollments from...well, yesterday
  • WA: New enrollments from the past 13 days

In addition, in all cases, there may still be some stray 2014 enrollees who are still eligible to actively renew/re-enroll in a policy for 2015; they may have missed the January deadline, but can keep their coverage gap to just 1 month if they enroll by tomorrow (or a few days later in some states).

Add all those up and 240K should be within reason.

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